NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2003

THE RESULTS AT A GLANCE

PARTY	%  1ST PREFERENCE VOTES	SEATS	% SEATS
SDLP	17.0	18	22.2
UUP	22.7	27	25.9
DUP	25.7	30	18.5
SF	23.5	24	16.6
ALLIANCE	3.7	4	5.6
UK UNIONISTS	4.5	1	4.6
INDEPENDENT	4.2	1	2.8

 

KEY TO THE PARTIES

AP                Alliance Party

CECC          Community and Environmental Conservation Campaign

CON            Conservative Party

DUP              Democratic Unionist Party

GP                Green Party

IND               Independent

IC                  Independent Community

LAB               Labour

NLP               Natural Law Party

NIWC           Northern Ireland Women's Coalition

NIUP             Northern Ireland Unionist Party

PA                 Pro-Agreement

PUP               Progressive Unionist Party

SF                  Sinn Fein

SDLP             Social Democratic and Labour Party

SEA              Socialist Environmental Alliance

SP                 Socialist Party

UI                 Ulster Independent

UIV               Ulster Independent Voice

UUP              Ulster Unionist Party

UTW             Ulster Third Way

UKUP            United Kingdom Unionist Party

UUC              United Unionist Coalition

VFYP              Vote for Yourself Party

WP                  Workers Party   

 

THE VOTING SYSTEM EXPLAINED

Unlike elections to the Westminster Parliament, which operate on the basis of a simple majority, elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly are based on proportional representation.  The system adopted is one of a single transferable vote.  There are 108 seats and 18 constituencies, with six members per constituency.  Voters can vote for as many candidates as they wish within each constituency, indicating their preference for each candidate from first to last [so if there are 10 candidates, a voter can regIster up to 10 preferences, allocating each of them a preference from 1 to 10].  In order to become elected on the first count of votes, a candidate must secure one seventh, or 14.3% of the vote - this is known as the quota.  In theory, six candidates could all be elected on first preference votes, but in practice this rarely if ever happens.  When less than six candidates make the quota on first preference votes, the number of votes in excess of the quota gained by each candidate who did make the quota are redistributed in proportion to the candidates nominated by each elector in their second preferences.  If that does not bring any of the candidates up to the quota, a process of elimination of the candidates with least votes begins, their votes also being allocated to second preferences, and so on down the preferences, until six candidates emerge who have either made the quota or are closest to the quota.

Since votes are counted by hand in Northern Ireland, rather than electronically, this process takes a long time and can require many counts [and re-counts if a result is challenged] until the election is decided.

FACTORS THAT ACCOUNT FOR THE RESULTS

Voters can express a preference for every candidate standing in a constituency, but the do not have to do so, they can just vote for one or two candidates if they so wish.  For the STV system to work perfectly, reflecting all the nuances of the wishes of the electorate, everyone has to give every candidate a preference.  By not doing so, voters can weight the results in favour of one party or another.  This seems to have happened here.  As the table of results shows, the Ulster Unionist Party had 21% of first preference votes, but ultimately gained 26% of seats, while the SDLP had 22% of first preference votes but only 22% of seats.

CROSS-PARTY TRANSFERS OF VOTES

According to academic Richard Sinnott, writing in the Irish Times of 29^th June 1998, party loyalty during the election can be measured by how often voters for a candidate from one party used their preferences to allow votes to be transferred to another member of the same party.  On this basis, Sinn Féin voters showed the highest level of party loyalty, at 87%, while the UK Unionist Party had the lowest, at 57% (although the UKUP was fielding far fewer candidates than SF, of course).  SF was a long way ahead of other parties in this respect, with the exception of the Progressive Unionist Party, who also showed high levels of party loyalty.

SF members were likely to use preferences to support the SDLP (68% terminal transfer rate), but SDLP members were less likely to support SF (45%).  UUP voters did not support the smaller loyalist parties, the UDP and the PUP, and PUP voters showed only modest support for the UUP (43%).  UUP terminal transfers went to the SDLP when no Alliance candidate was available at the rate of 36%.  It was hard to gauge the willingness of SDLP voters to support UUP candidates because the opportunity rarely arose, but when it did so in one seat an equivalent transfer rate of 36% occurred.  It would appear from this analysis that SF and the PUP were the two parties whose voters were the most tactical and/or flexible.

MEMBERS ELECTED TO THE ASSEMBLY 

Constituency	Member	Party
Belfast East	David Ervine Ian Adamson Reg Empey Peter Robinson Sammy Wilson John Alderdice	PUP     UUP     UUP     DUP     DUP     AP
Fermanagh and South Tyrone	Cllr Tommy Gallagher Cllr Gerry McHugh Michelle Gildernew Joan Carson Maurice Morrow Sam Foster	SDLP     SF     SF     UUP     DUP     UUP
Newry and Armagh	Seamus Mallon Cllr John Fee Danny Kennedy Conor Murphy Cllr Pat McNamee Paul Berry	SDLP     SDLP     UUP     SF     SF     DUP
Belfast North	Billy Hutchinson Cllr Alban Maginess Fred Cobain Gerry Kelly Nigel Dodds William Agnew	PUP     SDLP     UUP     SF     DUP     UUP
Belfast South	Cllr Alasdair McDonnell Cllr Carmel Hanna Esmond Birnie Michael McGimpsey Monica McWilliams Mark Peter Robinson	SDLP     SDLP     UUP     UUP     WC     DUP
Belfast West	Joe Hendron Cllr Alex Attwood Gerry Adams MP Barbre De Bruin Cllr Alex Maskey Cllr Sue Ramsey	SDLP     SDLP     SF     SF     SF     SF
East Antrim	Cllr Danny O’Connor Roy Beggs Jr Ken Robinson David Hilditch Sean Neeson Roger Hutchinson	SDLP     UUP     UUP     DUP     AP     UKUP

 

East Derry	Cllr Arthur Doherty Cllr John Dallat Pauline Armitage David McClarty Gregory Campbell Boyd Douglas	SDLP     SDLP     UUP     UUP     DUP     UUP
Foyle	John Hume Cllr Mark Durkan Cllr John Tierney Cllr Mitchel McLaughlin Cllr Mary Nellis William Hay	SDLP     SDLP     SDLP     SF     SF     DUP
Lagan Valley	Patricia Lewsley Billy Bell Edwin Potts Ivan Davis Seamus Close Patrick Roche	SDLP     UUP     DUP     UUP     AP     UKUP
Mid Ulster	Cllr Denis Haughey Billy Armstrong Martin McGuiness MP Cllr Francie Molloy Cllr John Kelly William McCrea	SDLP     UUP     SF     SF     SF     DUP
North Antrim	Sean Farren Robert Coulter James Leslie Ian Paisley Sr Ian Paisley Jr Gardiner Kane	SDLP     UUP     UUP     DUP     DUP     DUP
North Down	John Gorman Alan McFarland Peter Weir Jane Morrice Eileen Bell Robert McCartney	UUP     UUP     UUP     WC     AP     UKUP
South Antrim	Cllr Donovan McClelland Duncan Shipley-Dalton Jim Wilson Samuel Wilson Clyde David Ford Norman J Boyd	SDLP     UUP     UUP     DUP     AP     UKUP

 

South Down	Eddie McGrady Cllr Eamonn O’Neill Cllr P J Bradley Dermot Nesbitt Cllr Mick Murphy Jimmy Wells	SDLP     SDLP     SDLP     UUP     SF     DUP
Strangford	Iris Robinson John Taylor Thomas Benson Jim Shannon Kieran McCarthy Cedric Wilson	DUP     UUP     UUP     DUP     AP     UKUP
Upper Bann	Brid Rogers George Savage David Trimble Dara O’Hagan Mervyn Carrick Dennis Watson	SDLP     UUP     UUP     SF     DUP     UUAP
West Tyrone	Cllr Joe Byrne Cllr Eugene McMenamin Derek Hussey Pat Docherty Barry McElduff Oliver Gibson	SDLP     SDLP     UUP     SF     SF     DUP