ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 1998

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RESULTS OF THE ELECTION TO THE NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY 1998

NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

THE RESULTS AT A GLANCE

KEY TO THE PARTIES

AP           Alliance Party of Northern Ireland    

Ulnd        Ulster Independent

CP            Conservative Party

Ind            Independent

DUP           Democratic Unionist Party

ESC            Economics Senior Lecturer

GP              Green Party

IL                 Independent Labour

NLP             Natural Law Party

U                  Unionist Independent

PUP              Progressive Unionist Party

U/U             Ulster Unionist/United Unionist

SDLP            Social Democratic Labour Party

IN                Independent Nationalist

SF                Sinn Fein

E106           Energy 106 Party

SP                Social Party

PA               1998 Pro-Agreement Independent Candidate

UUP             Ulster Unionist Party

UDP            Ulster Democratic Party  

INC            Independent National Community Candidate

UKUP          United Kingdom Unionist Party

WC            Women's Coalition of Northern Ireland

UV              Ulster's Independent Voice

LAB            Labour Party of Northern Ireland

NM            Together to the New Millenium

WP             Worker's Party

IUU             Independent Ulster Unionists

UI                Ulster Independence

UUind        Ulster Unionist Independent

UUU            Ulster Unionist and United

ICC            Independent Community Candidate

CE              Community and Environmental Conservation Campaign

IC               Independent Community

UU              Ulster Unionist

THE VOTING SYSTEM EXPLAINED

Unlike elections to the Westminster Parliament, which operates on the basis of a simple majority, elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly are based on proportional representation.  The system adopted is one of a single transferable vote.  There are 108 seats and 18 constituencies, with six members per constituency.  Voters can vote for as many candidates as they wish within each constituency, indicating their preference for each candidate from first to last [so if there are 10 candidates, a voter can regIster up to 10 preferences, allocating each of them a preference from 1 to 10].  In order to become elected on the first count of votes, a candidate must secure one seventh, or 14.3% of the vote - this is known as the quota.  In theory, six candidates could all be elected on first preference votes, but in practice this rarely if ever happens.  When less than six candidates make the quota on first preference votes, the number of votes in excess of the quota gained by each candidate who did make the quota are redistributed in proportion to the candidates nominated by each elector in their second preferences.  If that does not bring any of the candidates up to the quota, a process of elimination of the candidates with least votes begins, their votes also being allocated to second preferences, and so on down the preferences, until six candidates emerge who have either made the quota or are closest to the quota.

Since votes are counted by hand in Northern Ireland, rather than electronically, this process takes a long time and can require many counts [and re-counts if a result is challenged] until the election is decided.

FACTORS THAT ACCOUNT FOR THE RESULTS

Voters can express a preference for every candidate standing in a constituency, but the do not have to do so, they can just vote for one or two candidates if they so wish.  For the STV system to work perfectly, reflecting all the nuances of the wishes of the electorate, everyone has to give every candidate a preference.  By not doing so, voters can weight the results in favour of one party or another.  This seems to have happened here.  As the table of results shows, the Ulster Unionist Party had 21% of first preference votes, but ultimately gained 26% of seats, while the SDLP had 22% of first preference votes but only 22% of seats.

CROSS-PARTY TRANSFERS OF VOTES

According to academic Richard Sinnott, writing in the Irish Times of 29^th June 1998, party loyalty during the election can be measured by how often voters for a candidate from one party used their preferences to allow votes to be transferred to another member of the same party.  On this basis, Sinn Féin voters showed the highest level of party loyalty, at 87%, while the UK Unionist Party had the lowest, at 57% (although the UKUP was fielding far fewer candidates than SF, of course).  SF was a long way ahead of other parties in this respect, with the exception of the Progressive Unionist Party, who also showed high levels of party loyalty.

SF members were likely to use preferences to support the SDLP (68% terminal transfer rate), but SDLP members were less likely to support SF (45%).  UUP voters did not support the smaller loyalist parties, the UDP and the PUP, and PUP voters showed only modest support for the UUP (43%).  UUP terminal transfers went to the SDLP when no Alliance candidate was available at the rate of 36%.  It was hard to gauge the willingness of SDLP voters to support UUP candidates because the opportunity rarely arose, but when it did so in one seat an equivalent transfer rate of 36% occurred.  It would appear from this analysis that SF and the PUP were the two parties whose voters were the most tactical and/or flexible.

SOME POINTS TO NOTE ABOUT THE RESULTS

·         This election, unlike most others in Northern Ireland, did not hinge solely on the unionist:nationalist divide.  This time another factor was at play, that of for:against the peace agreement.  It looks as if around 75% of those elected to the Assembly are pro-Agreement, compared to 71% who voted yes in the referendum.  This sends a very clear message to Assembly members that the majority of people on all sides of the community want the Assembly – and the Agreement – to work.

·         With both sides claiming a victory, it would seem that the unionist camp was fairly evenly split between support for and opposition to the Agreement.  Nationalists, of course, were more or less unanimously in favour.

·         John Hume’s SDLP gained the highest percentage (22%) of first preference votes, just beating the UUP (21%).

·         David Trimble’s UUP’s showing, of 21% of first preference votes and 26% of seats, was considerably down on their 33% vote in the 1997 Westminster election.  They lost votes because of the split in unionism over support for the peace agreement.

·         Ian Paisley’s DUP did better in the Assembly, with 18% of first preference votes and 19% of seats, than they did in 1997, when they won 14% of the vote.

·         The SDLP vote was also down on the 24% it gained in the 1997 election, with 22% of first preference votes and 22% of seats.

·         Sinn Féin improved on their 16% result in 1997, gaining 18% of first preference votes and 17% of seats.  SF gained at the SDLP’s expense, particularly in West Belfast, which was to be expected in view of voting trends in other recent elections and of the SDLP’s refusal to enter into any electoral pacts with SF.

·         David Ervine’s PUP maintained the position they gained in the 1996 Forum elections, when they gained 3% of the vote (they had no seats in the 1977 election).  They received 3% of first preference votes and 2% of seats.

·         Gary McMichael’s UDP, the other small loyalist party, which had 2% of the Forum vote, failed to gain any seats in the Assembly.  Since this party is closely aligned with the loyalist group, the UFF, this leaves a significant paramilitary faction without a political voice within the Assembly.  This is potentially destabilising, and is a poor reward for McMichael’s genuine contribution towards the peace process.  On the other hand, it may indicate that “loyalist” voters are moving away from defining themselves in terms of allegiance to paramilitary factions and are making judgements about which of the smaller loyalist parties can most effectively challenge the UUP and the DUP for representation of working class Protestant interests.

·         The Women’s Coalition, with 2% of the first preference votes and seats, improved on the 1% of Forum votes they achieved.  Their determined stand on human rights issues and their rejection of sectarianism during the peace talks suggests that they will continue to play a positive role in the Assembly.

·         Bob McCartney’s UK Unionists had 4% of the Forum vote but 5% of first preference and Assembly seats.  However, the combined UUP vote in North Down exceeded McCartney’s vote, possibly endangering his Westminster seat at the next election.

·         It seems likely that the Assembly will be dominated by a UUP/SDLP coalition.

·         A key question now is what the cabinet of the Assembly will look like.  David Trimble, as First Minister, and John Hume as his deputy, will probably preside over a 10-person executive made up as follows: 3 UUP, 2 DUP, 3 SDLP, 2 SF, giving a Cabinet of 12 altogether.  Since there are only six Northern Ireland Office departments at the moment, there will need to be some re-organisation so that 10 areas of ministerial responsibility can be created. 

·         If the UUP refuse to sit down with SF until the de-commissioning question is resolved, the future of the Assembly will be in question.  The DUP is apparently dedicated to wrecking the Assembly regardless, and with 2 seats could certainly make life difficult.  SF are insisting that they are entitled to take their seats at once.

·         Every member of the Assembly will now have to register themselves as either unionists, nationalist or other, in order that key votes in the Assembly can be measured for the level of cross-community consent.  Such votes must either attract a majority of both unionists and nationalists, or 40% of both unionists nationalists where a minimum of 60% of members have voted.  It remains to be seen how helpful such a scheme proves in promoting true power-sharing.  It suffers from two immediately apparent defects: it ossifies the unionist/

nationalist divide, and it discounts the votes of those defining themselves as “other”.
 

MEMBERS ELECTED TO THE ASSEMBLY

Share of Vote 

Results of 1988 Referendum: 

Yes                   71%

No                    29%

Turnout           81%   

For Peace Justice & Human Rights

28 November, 2003