NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2007

THE RESULTS AT A GLANCE

PARTY	SEATS	SEATS LOSS/GAIN	% SEATS	%  1ST PREFERENCE VOTES	% LOSS/GAIN
DUP	36	+ 6	33.3	30.1	+ 4.4
SF	28	+ 4	25.9	26.2	+ 2.6
UUP	18	- 9	16.7	14.9	- 7.7
SDLP	16	- 2	14.8	15.2	- 1.8
AP	7	+ 1	6.5	5.2	+ 1.6
GP	1	+ 1	0.9	1.7	+ 1.4
PUP	1	0	0.9	0.6	- 0.6
INDEPENDENT	1	0	0.9	3.2	+ 0.4

 

KEY TO THE PARTIES

AP       Alliance Party of Northern Ireland           SF         Sinn Féin                                

DUP    Democratic Unionist Party                         UUP    Ulster Unionist Party

GP       Green Party                                                 

PUP     Progressive Unionist Party                         

SDLP    Social Democratic Labour Party              

                                                           

 

UNIONIST CONTROL            NATIONALIST CONTROL            NO OVERALL CONTROL

 

THE VOTING SYSTEM EXPLAINED

Unlike elections to the Westminster Parliament, which operate on the basis of a simple majority, elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly are based on proportional representation.  The system adopted is one of a single transferable vote.  There are 108 seats and 18 constituencies, with six members per constituency.  Voters can vote for as many candidates as they wish within each constituency, indicating their preference for each candidate from first to last [so if there are 10 candidates, a voter can register up to 10 preferences, allocating each of them a preference from 1 to 10].  In order to become elected on the first count of votes, a candidate must secure one seventh, or 14.3% of the vote - this is known as the quota.  In theory, six candidates could all be elected on first preference votes, but in practice this rarely if ever happens.  When less than six candidates make the quota on first preference votes, the number of votes in excess of the quota gained by each candidate who did make the quota are redistributed in proportion to the candidates nominated by each elector in their second preferences.  If that does not bring any of the candidates up to the quota, a process of elimination of the candidates with least votes begins, their votes also being allocated to second preferences, and so on down the preferences, until six candidates emerge who have either made the quota or are closest to the quota.

Since votes are counted by hand in Northern Ireland, rather than electronically, this process takes a long time and can require many counts [and re-counts if a result is challenged] until the election is decided.

 FACTORS THAT ACCOUNT FOR THE RESULTS

Voters can express a preference for every candidate standing in a constituency, but the do not have to do so, they can just vote for one or two candidates if they so wish.  For the STV system to work perfectly, reflecting all the nuances of the wishes of the electorate, everyone has to give every candidate a preference.  By not doing so, voters can weight the results in favour of one party or another.  This seems to have happened here, particularly among unionists.  As the table of results shows, the Democratic Unionist Party had 31% of first preference votes, but ultimately gained 33% of seats, and the Ulster Unionist Party had 15% of the votes but 17% of the seats.  Votes for the two main nationalist parties, Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic Labour Party, on the other hand, reflected their percentage of seats fairly accurately.

some points of interest about the results

·         As has been the trend in all previous elections (please see SHARE OF VOTE table below), the DUP and Sinn Féin have continued to gain at the expense of the UUP and the SDLP.  However, the UUP have been the greatest loser, losing nine seats, while the SDLP lost only two (although they have two fewer seats than the UUP).

·         As the map shows, the west of Northern Ireland is becoming increasingly under nationalist control, while the east is controlled by the unionists.

·         If the unionist parties were to vote as a block, they would have 54 votes, compared to 44 block nationalist votes.

·         If a power-sharing executive is formed, it will have four DUP ministers, three Sinn Féin, two UUP and one SDLP.

·         Dawn Purvis replaced the late David Irvine as the PUP’s sole MLA.

·         Anna Lo, standing for the Alliance Party, became the first ever Chinese MLA.  The Chinese are Northern Ireland’s largest ethnic minority.

·         Dr Kieran Deeney was re-elected as an independent MLA, campaigning again on the basis of better health services.

·         Raymond McCord, campaigning as an independent candidate on behalf of both loyalist and nationalist victims of the conflict, failed to get elected.

·         Brian Wilson is the sole representative of the Green Party to win a seat.

·         The UK Unionist Party was eclipsed in this election.

·         All but two of Northern Ireland’s Westminster MPs are also MLAs.

MEMBERS ELECTED TO THE ASSEMBLY

In the table below “mainly” is used if the unionists/nationalists gained at least four out of six seats; “majority” is used if they gained three out the six.PRIVATE

 

PRIVATE Constituency	Member	Party
Belfast East   mainly unionist	Peter Robinson MP Wallace Browne Robin Newton Sir Reg Empey Naomi Long Dawn Purvis	DUP     DUP     DUP     UUP     AP     PUP
Belfast North   evanly divided unionist:nationalist	Nigel Dodds MP Nelson McCausland Gerry Kelly Caral Ni Chuilin Fred Cobain Alban Maginess	DUP     DUP     SF     SF     UUP     SDLP
Belfast South   nationalist majority	Jimmy Spratt Alex Maskey Michael McGimpsey Alasdair McDonnell MP Carmel Hanna Anna Lo	DUP     SF     UUP     SDLP     SDLP     AP
Belfast West   all nationalist	Gerry Adams MP Sue Ramsey Paul Maskey Jennifer McCann Fra McCann Alex Attwood	SF     SF     SF     SF     SF     SDLP
Fermanagh and South Tyrone   evenly divided unionist:nationalist	Arlene Foster Maurice Morrow Michelle Gildernew MP Gerry McHugh Tom Elliot Tommy Gallagher	DUP     DUP     SF     SF     UUP     SDLP

 

 

Newry and Armagh   mainly nationalist	William Irwin Conor Murphy MP Cathal Boylan Micky Brady Danny Kennedy Dominic Bradley	DUP     SF     SF     SF     UUP     SDLP
East Antrim   mainly unionist	Sammy Wilson MP George Dawson David Hilditch Roy Beggs Ken Robinson Sean Neeson	DUP     DUP     DUP     UUP     UUP     AP
East Londonderry   mainly unionist	Gregory Campbell MP George Robinson Adrian McQuillan Francie Brolly David McClarty John Dallat	DUP     DUP     DUP     SF     UUP     SDLP
Foyle   mainly nationalist	William Hay Martina Anderson Lynn Fleming Mark Durkan MP Pat Ramsey Mary Bradley	DUP     SF     SF     SDLP     SDLP     SDLP
Lagan Valley   mainly unionist	Jeffrey Donaldson MP Jonathan Craig Edwin Poots Paul Butler Basil McCrea Trevor Lunn	DUP     DUP     DUP     SF     UUP     AP
Mid Ulster   mainly nationalist	Ian McCrea Martin McGuiness MP Francie Molloy Michelle O’Neill Billy Armstrong Patsy McGlone	DUP     SF     SF     SF     UUP     SDLP

 

 

North Antrim   mainly unionist	Ian Paisley MP Ian Paisley Jr Mervyn Story Daithi McKay Robert Coulter Declan O’Loan	DUP     DUP     DUP     SF     UUP     SDLP
North Down   mainly unionist	Alex Easton Peter Weir Leslie Cree Alan McFarland Stephen Farry Brian Wilson	DUP     DUP     UUP     UUP     AP     GP
South Antrim   mainly unionist	William McCrea MP Trevor Clarke Mel Lucas Mitchell McLaughlin David Burnside David Ford	DUP     DUP     DUP     SF     UUP     AP
South Down   mainly nationalist	Jim Wells Caitriona Ruane Willie Clarke John McAllister Margaret Ritchie P J Bradley	DUP     SF     SF     UUP     SDLP     SDLP
Strangford   mainly unionist	Iris Robinson Jim Shannon Simon Hamilton Michelle McIlveen David McNarry Kieran McCarthy	DUP     DUP     DUP     DUP     UUP     AP
Upper Bann   mainly unionist	David Simpson MP Stephen Moutrey John O’Dowd Sam Gardiner George Savage Dolores Kelly	DUP     DUP     SF     UUP     UUP     SDLP

 

 

West Tyrone   nationalist majority

Thomas Buchanan Allan Bresland Barry McElduff Pat Doherty Claire McGill Kieran Deeney

DUP     DUP     SF     SF     SF     IND